- Up to 13.11 million life years could be saved through vaping in Ukraine
- 88 per cent of scenarios analysed showed a positive impact from vape use
- Average reduction in smoking-related life years lost was 3.17 million
- Long-term smoking rates could drop to between 5.5 and 6.4 per cent through uptake of vapes
The use of vapes could lead to a substantial reduction in life years lost due to smoking in Ukraine, a new study has found.
The research, published in the Central European Journal of Public Health, replicated a ‘dynamic population simulation’ model originally developed in the U.S. The findings suggest that vapes can play a crucial role in public health efforts to combat the harms of conventional tobacco use.
In Ukraine, around 75,000 people die every year from smoking-related illness. While recent policies have made progress in reducing smoking rates, the researchers argue that “Ukraine’s current approach largely overlooks the potential benefits of harm reduction strategies.”
Most scenarios led to life years saved
By introducing 210 different scenarios that model how vapes might influence smoking behaviour and health outcomes, the research aimed to estimate how much of an impact vaping could make.
These scenarios varied widely, reflecting different assumptions about how many smokers would switch to vapes, how many non-smokers might start using them, and what the long-term health consequences might be.
The researchers said: “A substantial majority of e-cigarette scenarios (88.10 per cent) resulted in positive life-years saved (LYS).”
The study found that across all the scenarios, the life years saved ranged from a loss of 1.13 million to a gain of 13.11 million. However, the median outcome, which is a typical case across all simulations, was a gain of 3.17 million life years. This represents a 4.55 per cent reduction in the total life years lost due to cigarette smoking in Ukraine.
Even more encouraging were the results from the most plausible scenarios, which the authors defined as those most consistent with current trends and scientific understanding.
‘Benefits of vapes outweigh potential harm’
In these, the life years saved ranged from 2.73 million to 4.88 million, equivalent to between 3.92 per cent and 6.99 per cent of the life years currently lost to smoking in Ukraine.
“These findings support the idea that the benefits of e-cigarettes outweigh potential harm, aligning with previous studies in other countries,” the researchers wrote.
The findings highlighted the potential for vape use to reduce smoking rates over the long term. According to the study, under the most realistic scenarios, “the long-term smoking prevalence would stabilise at around 5.56–6.40 per cent.”
The study also emphasised the importance of public health policy makers in Ukraine embracing tobacco harm reduction. “Our simulation analysis demonstrates the potential of e-cigarettes to significantly reduce the burden of smoking in Ukraine,” the authors said.
While they acknowledged that some scenarios brought small losses in life years, these were considered unlikely when compared to the more plausible models.
Considerable net public health benefit
The researchers said that although vapes are not risk-free, transitioning smokers from combustible cigarettes to vaping could result in a considerable net public health benefit.
The report echoes a growing body of international evidence suggesting that vaping can be an effective tool in reducing the harms of tobacco. The authors said that “most e-cigarette scenarios result in positive LYS, while scenarios with negative LYS are unlikely.”
The study encourages policymakers to look again at existing tobacco control strategies and consider integrating harm reduction approaches, including support for adult smokers who choose to switch to vapes.
