Legalising vapes in Mexico could save 106,000 deaths from smoking in the next 25 years, a new study has found.
The report, published as a preprint in the journal BMJ Yale, compares the outcomes of the current ban on vapes in Mexico with a scenario where they are unrestricted.
It projects that legalising vapes could cut smoking by 40.1 per cent men and 30.9 per cent in women by 2049 compared to continuing the current national ban.
This reduction in smoking, it says, would save 2.9 million years of life (2.5 million for men and 0.4 million for women) and avoid almost 106,000 deaths (91,000 for men and 15,500 women) between 2025 and 2049.
Mexico’s vape ban
In June 2022, Mexico's President Andrés Manuel López Obrador signed a decree that prohibits the “circulation and marketing” of vapes as well as tobacco heaters. This ban includes both the sale and import of vaping products, and it is enforced throughout the country.
The ban was introduced to prevent underage vaping; however, vapes can easily be obtained on the black market, which is controlled by organised crime groups. Meanwhile, smokers who want to quit have difficulty finding safe vaping products.
The new report, which is now awaiting a peer review, says: “..by legalising and regulating ENDS [electronic nicotine delivery], Mexican smokers could have access to more standardised and, likely, less harmful ENDS than those currently on the market, which are often mislabeled and include a range of potentially harmful constituents.
“Moreover, current smokers might be more willing to try ENDS for cessation if these are approved and regulated than in the current environment.”
It recommends that legalisation of vapes should be accompanied by a “strong tobacco control policies and enforcement to steer consumers away from cigarette smoking”.
The study uses the Smoking and Vaping Model (SAVM) - a time-simulation model, adaptable to any country, that projects the public health impact of smokers switching to vapes.
It says it is the first SAVM study of the impact of vaping in a lower to middle class country.
Similar studies in high income countries
A similar study in Australia found that a permissive policy on vapes could reduce deaths by 7.7 per cent, compared with current tough restrictions. And one in New Zealand projected that removing their vape ban could gain 236,000 life years and save $2.5 billion.
The Mexico report concludes: “Mexico SAVM suggests that greater access to ENDS and a more permissive ENDS regulation, simultaneous with strong cigarette policies, would reduce smoking prevalence and decrease smoking-related mortality.”
It calls on the government to take into account the positive impact vapes can have on public health. It says: “The unanticipated effects of an ENDS ban merit closer scrutiny, with further consideration of how specific ENDS restrictions may maximise public health benefits.”
