- Daily cigarette smoking among young adults (19 to 30) has dropped to just three per cent in 2024.
- Smoking in the past 30 days among young adults has fallen by nearly three quarters since 2004.
- At the same time, one in four young adults reported vaping nicotine in the past year.
- Midlife adults also show steep declines in smoking, while vaping remains lower but rising.
Smoking among young adults in the United States has fallen to historic lows while vaping has risen, according to new national data.
The latest Monitoring the Future (MTF) survey found that just three per cent of 19 to 30-year-olds reported daily cigarette smoking in 2024. The long-running report is conducted by the University of Michigan’s Institute for Social Research and funded by the National Institute on Drug Abuse.
Rates of smoking increase slightly with age, from 1.3 per cent at ages 19 to 20 to 4.1 per cent at 29 to 30, but overall they remain at record lows.
Cigarette use in past 30 days plummets
Smoking half a pack or more per day was reported by only 1.3 per cent of young adults. The study notes cigarette use in the past 30 days has dropped nearly three-quarters since 2004, when it stood at 28.8 per cent.
Researchers describe “significant decreases in past 12 month use, past 30 day use, daily use, and smoking a half pack or more per day over the past five years and ten years.”
While cigarette use has dramatically fallen, vaping nicotine has increased sharply among young adults. In 2024, 25.8 per cent of 19 to 30-year-olds reported vaping in the past 12 months, nearly doubling since questions on vaping were first added in 2017.
In the past 30 days, 19.4 per cent reported vaping, up from 6.1 per cent in 2017. The highest prevalence was among 23 to 24-year-olds, with one-third reporting use in the past year and more than a quarter in the past 30 days.
Smoking falls, as vaping rises
Source: Monitoring the Future
The data suggests a clear shift with fewer young people smoking traditional cigarettes, while more are choosing vaping. Public health experts have long acknowledged that vaping is far less harmful than smoking combustible
tobacco, with estimates suggesting at least a 95 per cent reduction in risk. The MTF figures support the view that vaping may be displacing cigarette smoking among younger adults.
Not limited to young people
The trends are not limited to young people. Adults in early midlife (ages 35 to 50) have also shown sharp declines in smoking. Cigarette use in the past 12 months dropped from 20.8 per cent in 2014 to 14.5 per cent in 2024, while past 30-day use fell from 16.3 per cent to 10.7 per cent.
Daily smoking declined from 12.9 per cent in 2014 to 8.4 per cent in 2024, and smoking half a pack or more per day dropped from 9.2 per cent to 5.7 per cent.
Among those aged 55 to 65, cigarette smoking remains somewhat higher, with daily use reported by 8.9 per cent in 2024, but still shows a long-term decline.
Vaping is far less common in these older groups, though early midlife adults reported record levels in 2024, with 8.5 per cent reporting vaping in the past year and 6.4 per cent in the past month.
The MTF Panel Study, which has followed U.S. adults since 1976, now includes about 120,000 participants, making it one of the most comprehensive datasets on substance use. Each year, around 20,000 people are surveyed, allowing researchers to track how habits shift across generations and over time.
