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Smoking rates in New Zealand have fallen TWICE as fast as Australia, new expert study finds

  • New study compares New Zealand’s progressive policies on vapes with Australia’s restrictive approach. 
  • Adult daily smoking rates in New Zealand fell by 10 per cent per year over seven years. 
  • In contrast, Australia’s smoking rate dropped by only five per cent per year.
  • The decline in smoking mirrored the vaping rates in the two countries.
  • Smoking rates fell three times faster in New Zealand’s lowest socioeconomic communities compared to Australia’s.
  • New Zealand shows no significant evidence of illicit trade while Australia has a rampant and often violent black market.

Australia’s vape ban is less effective at reducing smoking than New Zealand’s more progressive approach, a new expert study suggests. 

The study shows that smoking rates in New Zealand, where adults can buy vapes from any licensed retailers, have fallen twice as fast as in Australia where vapes can only legally be bought from chemists. 

The research, published in the journal Addiction, says: “This study compared two neighbouring countries with very different vaping regulatory models but with similar tobacco control policies and population demographics. 

“Australia has a highly restrictive, prescription-only vaping policy, while New Zealand adopted a regulated consumer model.”

In October, Australia backpedaled on the prescription-only model but made vapes available to buy only from chemists. 

New Zealand’s smoking rate fell twice as fast

The report found that adult daily smoking rates in New Zealand dropped by an average of 10 per cent per year – from 14.5 per cent to 6.8 per cent – from 2016 to 2023. 

In contrast, Australia’s smoking rate declined by only five per cent per year, from 12.2 per cent to 8.3 per cent. 

The report’s lead author Colin Mendelsohn, a harm reduction expert, said: “The findings suggest that more liberal regulation of nicotine vaping in Australia could speed up the reduction in smoking and improve health and financial disparities.”

Source: https://colinmendelsohn.com.au/

The drop was especially notable in disadvantaged and indigenous populations. Smoking rates fell three times faster in New Zealand’s lowest socioeconomic communities compared to Australia (12 per cent per year vs four per cent per year). 

And smoking in New Zealand’s Māori population declined almost three times as fast as among Australia’s Indigenous population (16 per cent vs six per cent per year).

Mendelsohn said: “These findings highlight the potential of vaping to reduce health and financial disparities by providing effective alternatives to smoking for high-risk groups.”

Adults in New Zealand have easy access to a wide range of regulated vapes, which are proven to help smokers quit cigarettes. Vapes are sold from licensed retailers in the same way as cigarettes and alcohol. Last month, the New Zealand government began handing out free vaping starter kits to people who want to quit smoking.

In contrast, Australia has taken a highly restrictive approach with vapes only legally available from pharmacies. 

Mendelsohn said: “Australia’s restrictive, medical model for vaping has inadvertently fuelled a thriving and increasingly violent black market. Today, more than 90 per cent of vaping products sold in Australia come from illicit sources with no safety standards and easy access for youth. 

“In contrast, New Zealand’s regulated retail system has shown no significant evidence of illicit trade.”

Source: DOI: 10.1111/add.70006

New Zealand now has a lower smoking rate than Australia for the first time.

The study found that the decline in smoking in each country closely reflected their vaping rates: in 2023, 9.7 per cent of New Zealand adults vaped daily, nearly three times the rate in Australia (3.5 per cent).

Source: https://colinmendelsohn.com.au/

The age group with the highest vaping rate was young adults, who also showed the fastest decline in smoking.

Youth vaping rose more sharply in New Zealand, reaching 10 per cent daily vaping in 2023 compared to just three per cent in Australia. However, most of this rise occurred prior to the introduction of regulation in New Zealand in 2021. 

Source: DOI: 10.1111/add.70006

At the same time, daily youth smoking hit record lows in both countries in 2023 (0.3 per cent in Australia and 1.2 per cent in New Zealand).

“These findings suggest that vaping has not acted as a gateway to smoking but instead may be diverting young people away from combustible tobacco,” said Mendelsohn.

Mendelsohn said the “cross-sectional” nature of the study (where it tracks population trends rather than following individuals) means it cannot definitively prove vaping was the cause of the rapid fall in New Zealand smoking. 

However, he said alternative explanations are unlikely. “After examining multiple possible explanations, researchers found no other credible factor to explain this dramatic decline,” he said.

“If vaping is the key driver of this success, as appears likely, then Australia’s current approach isn’t just failing, it’s costing lives..New Zealand has shown us what works – it’s time we paid attention.”

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