Youth vaping in New Zealand has fallen sharply and smoking among teenagers is at historic lows, according to new national data from the ASH Year 10 Snapshot Survey.
Health experts say the findings directly challenge claims that vaping acts as a “gateway” to smoking for young people.
The survey, which questioned more than 31,000 Year 10 students aged 14 and 15 in 2025, shows continued declines in vaping alongside consistently low smoking rates.
Vaping falls, smoking remains low
According to the survey, daily vaping fell from 8.7 per cent in 2024 to 7.1 per cent in 2025. Regular vaping declined from 14.1 per cent to 11.2 per cent, continuing a downward trend that began after peaking in 2021.
Smoking rates among young people remained low and stable. Daily smoking stood at 1.1 per cent in 2025, while regular smoking was recorded at 2.5 per cent. Both figures are among the lowest recorded since the survey began in 1999.
At the same time, the proportion of teenagers who have never smoked continued to rise. In 2025, 89.4 per cent of students reported they had never tried a cigarette, up from 88.3 per cent the previous year.
Evidence against the “gateway” theory
International health experts say the latest data undermines claims that vaping inevitably leads young people to smoking.
Dr Delon Human, leader of Smoke Free Sweden and a former Secretary General of the World Medical Association, said: “The scaremongers have been proved wrong. The New Zealand data shows the ‘gateway’ theory does not stand up to real-world evidence.
“Youth smoking continues to fall even as safer alternatives are available to adults, demonstrating that youth protection and harm reduction for smokers are not mutually exclusive.”
The survey also found declines in vaping among students who have never smoked. Daily vaping among never-smokers fell from 3.7 per cent in 2024 to 3.0 per cent in 2025, while regular vaping dropped from 7.6 per cent to 5.7 per cent.
Among students who smoke daily, vaping rates remained high, with 82.8 per cent reporting daily vaping and 93.2 per cent reporting regular vaping.
Differences by ethnicity and gender
The data shows statistically significant decreases in vaping among several ethnic groups.
Daily vaping fell among Māori students from 20.9 per cent to 16.5 per cent, and among European/Pākehā students from 5.7 per cent to 4.7 per cent. Regular vaping also declined among Māori, Pacific and European/Pākehā students.
Never-smoking rates increased among Māori and European/Pākehā students, while ever-trying vaping declined in both groups. Māori students continued to record the highest levels of vaping, while Asian students reported the lowest.
By gender, statistically significant decreases in daily and regular vaping were recorded among Māori and non-Māori non-Pacific boys and girls.
Implications for policy
New Zealand is one of the few countries nearing official “smoke-free” status, defined as adult daily smoking prevalence below five per cent. National smoking rates have fallen to 6.8 per cent in less than a decade, following government-backed promotion of vaping as a safer alternative for adult smokers.
Dr Human said the findings should prompt policymakers to reassess their approach. “All reliable evidence shows that smart regulation saves lives,” he said. “Policies grounded in fear rather than science risk protecting cigarettes, the most dangerous product of all.”
The ASH Year 10 Snapshot Survey is conducted annually using peer-reviewed methods and has tracked youth smoking and vaping behaviour since 1999. Its latest results indicate that youth vaping and smoking continue to decline, while the proportion of teenagers who have never smoked continues to rise.
