{"id":36869,"date":"2026-05-01T08:39:18","date_gmt":"2026-05-01T08:39:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/clearingtheair.eu\/?p=36869"},"modified":"2026-05-01T08:39:24","modified_gmt":"2026-05-01T08:39:24","slug":"smoke-free-by-2040-within-reach-but-only-with-wider-access-to-safer-nicotine-alternatives","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/clearingtheair.eu\/en\/post\/smoke-free-by-2040-within-reach-but-only-with-wider-access-to-safer-nicotine-alternatives\/","title":{"rendered":"Smoke-free by 2040 within reach &#8211; but only with wider access to safer nicotine alternatives"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"clear-before-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 20px;margin-bottom: 20px;margin-left: auto;margin-right: auto;text-align: center;\" id=\"clear-846469011\"><img src=\"https:\/\/clearingtheair.eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/caafc5c68900198b80aee12c11b50184.avif\" alt=\"\"   style=\"display: inline-block;\" \/><\/div>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>A global smoking rate below 5% by 2040 is described as \u201ca realistic, measurable and equitable target\u201d<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Current tobacco control measures alone are unlikely to reduce smoking fast enough<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Wider access to \u201cregulated smoke-free nicotine alternatives\u201d could accelerate declines significantly<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Evidence from countries using these alternatives shows faster reductions in smoking alongside youth protection<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>A major new analysis published in Nature Health suggests the world could come close to ending the smoking epidemic within the next 15 years &#8211; but only if safer nicotine alternatives are more widely embraced alongside existing tobacco control policies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s44360-026-00121-1\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">The paper<\/a> argues that increasing the use of smoke-free nicotine products such as vapes could help drive global smoking prevalence below five per cent by 2040, a threshold often described as effectively \u201csmoke-free\u201d.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Despite decades of progress, smoking remains a major global health burden. The authors note it is still responsible for \u201cmore than seven million deaths each year\u201d, with declines in smoking rates slowing in many countries.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>They warn that population growth, ageing populations and uneven policy implementation mean \u201ccurrent approaches are unlikely to deliver reductions at the pace required\u201d to meet global health targets.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Why progress is stalling<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Global tobacco control efforts have largely focused on reducing demand through taxation, advertising bans, smoke-free laws and cessation support. While these measures have driven significant progress, the paper suggests their impact is now plateauing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As smoking rates fall, the remaining population of smokers increasingly includes \u201colder and disadvantaged adults\u201d and those with higher nicotine dependence, many of whom have already tried and failed to quit.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This makes further reductions harder to achieve using traditional approaches alone.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>At the same time, the global scale of the problem remains vast. Around one billion people still use tobacco, and smoking continues to be \u201cthe single largest avoidable cause of non-communicable diseases globally\u201d.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The role of harm reduction<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The analysis highlights the \u201crapid emergence of regulated non-combustible (smoke-free) nicotine products\u201d as a potential turning point.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>These include vapes, heated tobacco products, nicotine pouches and traditional nicotine replacement therapies. Because they do not involve combustion, they expose users to far fewer toxic substances than cigarettes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The authors stress that \u201cit is exposure to smoke from combustion &#8211; not nicotine &#8211; that drives tobacco-related disease\u201d.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>They argue that tobacco harm reduction, offering people who smoke access to less harmful alternatives, should be more formally integrated into global tobacco control strategies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Although harm reduction is recognised within existing international frameworks, the paper says it has \u201cremained underdeveloped, inconsistently regulated and politically contentious\u201d.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Evidence from real-world use<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The paper points to evidence from several countries where smoke-free alternatives have been widely adopted.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In Sweden, the use of oral nicotine products has been linked to some of the lowest smoking rates in Europe and significantly lower tobacco-related disease.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In Japan, the introduction of heated tobacco products coincided with \u201cunprecedented declines in cigarette sales\u201d.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Meanwhile, in the United States, falling smoking rates have occurred alongside increased uptake of vaping among adults who smoke.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>New Zealand is highlighted as a particularly clear example. Smoking rates had been declining gradually for decades, but the pace of decline \u201caccelerated sharply after 2018\u201d, coinciding with wider access to regulated vaping products.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The steepest reductions were seen among disadvantaged groups, suggesting a potential role in reducing health inequalities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Addressing concerns<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The paper also addresses common concerns around harm reduction, including youth uptake, long-term health risks and dual use of cigarettes and alternatives.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It notes that while these concerns \u201cwarrant careful attention\u201d, they should be weighed against the known harms of continued smoking.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>On youth use, the authors highlight that smoking rates among young people have continued to decline in countries where vaping has become more common, often reaching historic lows.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>They also point out that many studies linking youth vaping to later smoking are influenced by shared risk factors, such as behavioural traits and social environment.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>On safety, the paper acknowledges uncertainty around long-term effects but states that \u201cthe absence of combustion makes these products intrinsically far less hazardous than cigarettes\u201d.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>A shift in global strategy<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>To reach a smoke-free 2040 target, the authors argue that policy needs to better reflect the relative risks of different nicotine products.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>They call for a \u201crisk-proportionate regulatory framework\u201d that places the strongest restrictions on combustible tobacco, while allowing safer alternatives to remain accessible and effective substitutes.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This would include aligning taxation, regulation and public communication with the goal of encouraging smokers to switch away from cigarettes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Clear messaging is also seen as critical. The paper highlights \u201cwidespread\u201d misperceptions about nicotine, often driven by \u201calarmist media coverage and ambiguous public health messaging\u201d.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The 2040 goal<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Currently, around 16 per cent of the global population smokes. On current trends, this is expected to fall to around 10 per cent by 2040.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Reaching below five per cent would require a \u201csubstantial acceleration\u201d in the rate of decline.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The authors argue that combining existing tobacco control measures with wider access to safer nicotine alternatives offers a \u201cclear and achievable pathway\u201d to reaching that goal.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>They conclude that the tools to end the smoking epidemic already exist, but greater political will is needed to fully integrate harm reduction into global tobacco control strategies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>ends<\/p>\n<div class=\"clear-after-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 20px;margin-bottom: 20px;margin-left: auto;margin-right: auto;text-align: center;\" id=\"clear-2133388742\"><img src=\"https:\/\/clearingtheair.eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/caafc5c68900198b80aee12c11b50184.avif\" alt=\"\"   style=\"display: inline-block;\" \/><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>A major new analysis published in Nature Health suggests the world could come close to ending the smoking epidemic within the next 15 years &#8211; but only if safer nicotine alternatives are more widely embraced alongside existing tobacco control policies. The paper&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":990002,"featured_media":36876,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[259,257],"tags":[334,342,186,333,339],"slider":[],"class_list":["post-36869","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-science","category-news","tag-global","tag-new-zealand","tag-nicotine","tag-sweden","tag-united-states"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/clearingtheair.eu\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/36869","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/clearingtheair.eu\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/clearingtheair.eu\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/clearingtheair.eu\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/990002"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/clearingtheair.eu\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=36869"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/clearingtheair.eu\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/36869\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":36883,"href":"https:\/\/clearingtheair.eu\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/36869\/revisions\/36883"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/clearingtheair.eu\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/36876"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/clearingtheair.eu\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=36869"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/clearingtheair.eu\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=36869"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/clearingtheair.eu\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=36869"},{"taxonomy":"slider","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/clearingtheair.eu\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/slider?post=36869"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}