At a European Parliament hearing last week, the Smoke-Free Partnership (SFP) told MEPs that 29 per cent of Swedish 17-year-old students currently use oral nicotine products.
The figure was used to challenge Sweden’s harm-reduction strategy – the same strategy that has helped drive the country’s smoking rate to the lowest in the EU.
But a closer look at the underlying data shows that the headline number doesn’t represent what SFP suggests.
What the 29 per cent actually measures
The figure comes from the 2024 National School Survey by CAN, which samples students in the second year of upper secondary school. While this cohort is often described simply as “17-year-olds,” a sizable share of students have already turned 18 by the time the survey is conducted.
A straightforward demographic estimate suggests around 20 per cent are already adults. Adjusting for that puts the likely prevalence of under-18 use closer to 23 per cent, not 29 per cent.
“Current use” includes infrequent consumption
SFP described the 29 per cent as “current use,” but CAN’s own breakdown shows:
- 21 per cent daily use
- Eight per cent occasional use, such as at parties
Combining daily and occasional consumption gives a higher figure than regular use alone.
Key context missing from SFP’s narrative
SFP drew on data from a report that also notes that snus carries “generally lower risk than smoking”, alongside specific health considerations. The omission is notable given Sweden’s long-standing harm-reduction approach – an approach that has led to one of the most dramatic declines in smoking seen anywhere in Europe.
Sweden’s smoke-free milestone
In October 2025, Sweden became the first country in Europe to reach smoke-free status, defined by the World Health Organisation as fewer than five per cent of the population smoking daily. Economist David Sundén, who calculated the milestone from official statistics, said the achievement reflects a strategy built on access to safer alternatives rather than bans.
Sundén highlighted the role of consumer choice. “Sweden has shown that it is possible to reduce smoking rates drastically without relying only on bans. The key has been the combination of higher cigarette taxes and access to alternatives like snus. That has given people choices instead of simply being forced to quit.”
Young people drove the shift earlier than the rest of the population. “Sweden already passed a key milestone in 2018, with Swedes aged 15 to 24 having dropped below the five per cent smoke-free threshold,” Sundén noted.
Europe’s outlier in outcomes
Sweden now records the lowest smoking-related mortality in the EU – 90 deaths per 100,000 people, compared with 203 per 100,000 in the UK and 660 per 100,000 in Bulgaria. Sundén argues that if other EU countries had adopted Sweden’s approach, “more than 217,000 European men could have been saved from premature death. Every year.”
“Sweden is already where the UK and the USA hope to be in ten years’ time,” he added. “Sweden shows that it is possible to reach the targets much faster than many believe.”
Why it matters in Brussels
SFP is partly funded by the European Commission and then presents evidence to the European Parliament. When that evidence overstates underage use and leaves out risk context from the same report, it risks skewing a debate with major public-health implications – not least because the data comes from the very country that has delivered Europe’s most successful decline in smoking.
