- More than half of teens who tried vaping had quit by the following year, a new U.S study finds
- Just 5.6 per cent of teens who tried vaping became regular users a year later
- The most common pattern among teen vapers was reducing or stopping use within a year
- Teens who smoked cigarettes or had parents who used nicotine were more likely to keep vaping
Most teenagers who experiment with vaping stop within a year, according to a new U.S. study.
Researchers found that more than half (52 per cent) of U.S. adolescents who tried vapes around the height of the 2019 teen vaping boom had quit by the following year.
The study, published in the journal Substance Use and Misuse, analysed data from the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health (PATH) study – a large, nationally representative, longitudinal survey tracking tobacco and nicotine product use among U.S. youth and adults.
Led by Sooyong Kim and Arielle Selya, the analysis focused on youth who had never used electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS) as of 2018. It followed them to the end of 2021.
Only 5.6 per cent became regular users
While 21 per cent of these teens reported trying ENDS by 2019, only 10.9 per cent said they had vaped in the past month. A much smaller fraction – just 5.6 per cent – reported what researchers defined as “ever-regular use,” meaning they had vaped on 20 or more days in the past month.
One year later, in 2021, more than half of those who had tried ENDS had stopped altogether. Nearly 60 per cent had reduced their vaping, compared with 16.7 per cent who had increased their use.
“These findings show that much of youth ENDS use is short-lived,” the authors wrote. “Most who experimented with vaping during the 2019 peak discontinued or reduced use within a year.”
Public health experts have long expressed concern over teen vaping, warning about the risks of nicotine addiction and its potential impact on the developing brain.
In 2019, more than one in five middle and high school students reported vaping in the past 30 days, sparking widespread alarm and regulatory action. Since then, that figure has dropped sharply to just under six per cent in 2024, according to government data.
Most surveys rely on broad metrics
However, national youth tobacco surveys have often relied on broad metrics, such as whether a teen has ever tried vaping or used in the past month, without distinguishing between one-time experimentation and regular use.
This study aimed to add nuance to that picture by following individual teens over time and measuring degrees of use, such as frequency and regularity.
By focusing on a critical period, just before and after the peak in youth vaping, the research provides insight into how teen behaviour evolves. Among those who tried ENDS between 2018 and 2019, the most common pattern was reduction in use.
For new vapers, nearly 28 per cent stopped using altogether within the next year, and another 17.3 per cent significantly cut back.
Who keeps vaping?
Though most teens reduce or stop vaping, a smaller subset does persist. About 25 per cent of youth who began ENDS use in 2019 either maintained or escalated their use by 2021. Frequent users, defined as those who vaped 20 or more days in the past month, were more likely to report dependence symptoms and regular habits.
Smoking cigarettes was the strongest predictor of persistent vaping. Teens who smoked at the time they started vaping were significantly more likely to continue ENDS use a year later and to report more intense use.
Other risk factors included being non-Hispanic white and having a parent who smokes or vapes.
Rethinking the risk
While any nicotine use among youth raises health concerns, the study’s authors argue that many current surveillance tools may overstate the scope of the problem by failing to distinguish short-term or social use from more sustained, harmful patterns.
The results suggest that vaping experimentation, especially during the 2019 surge, was often not a gateway to addiction or long-term use.
Given that ENDS products are widely considered to be far less harmful than combustible cigarettes, the researchers argue that the focus of public health should be on teens who escalate or persist in frequent use.
They write: “Surveillance and prevention efforts may be most impactful if they focus on the smaller proportion of youth whose use intensifies over time, as that is where the potential for harm is greatest.”
A call for smarter metrics
The study underscores the value of longitudinal data in understanding teen behaviour and calls for more precise measures of use in public health reporting. Simply knowing whether a teen has ever tried vaping, the researchers say, is not enough.
Instead, future studies and prevention campaigns should track frequency, intensity, and persistence of use. These metrics better distinguish between fleeting experimentation and risky, sustained behaviour.
As teen vaping rates continue to decline nationally, the researchers suggest that interventions targeted toward high-risk groups, rather than blanket strategies, may be the most effective way forward.
