The European Union (EU) won’t meet its target to be ‘smoke free’ for another 76 years, a major new report has found.
The EU has set itself a goal of being declared smoke free, defined by the World Health Organisation as having a smoking rate of under five per cent, by 2040.
But new analysis from global research body Smoke Free Sweden reveals that at the current trajectory, the EU won’t meet its target until 2100 - an astonishing six decades behind schedule.
The report Missing the Target says: “The European Union’s own evidence shows that its current tobacco control strategies are falling short of achieving a smoke free society by 2040.
“Despite efforts such as taxation, public smoking bans and awareness campaigns, smoking rates across the EU remain high, with only modest declines.”
Sweden expects to be smoke free in one week
The findings come as Sweden - which makes nicotine alternatives widely available to smokers wanting to switch - is set to become the first ‘smoke free’ country in the world in just one week’s time. This is a year ahead of its target - and 16 years ahead of the EU.
The report, which analysed data from public opinion survey Special Eurobarometer 539, says: “In contrast, Sweden is leading the way by adopting a tobacco harm reduction (THR) approach, demonstrating that focusing on reduced-risk products can yield significant progress.”
Meanwhile in the EU, 24 per cent of adults are still smoking - only a one per cent decrease from 2020.
“At this rate, the EU may not reach its target until 2100, highlighting the need for more effective and modernised strategies,” the report says. “Meanwhile, Sweden is on the verge of becoming smoke free, thanks to its focus on alternative nicotine products such as snus, nicotine pouches, vapes and heated tobacco.”
The report says that Sweden’s approach of lowering taxes on safer nicotine alternatives while raising taxes on cigarettes has been “highly effective.”
It says: “By making these alternatives accessible, acceptable and affordable, Sweden is set to meet its 2025 smoke free target ahead of schedule. In contrast, countries such as Ireland and the Netherlands, which have imposed bans and restrictions on these products, are seeing minimal progress or even stagnation.”
Smoking rates across Europe
Source: Missing the Target, Smoke Free Sweden
Ireland’s smoking rate is TRIPLE that of Sweden’s, despite both setting the same 2025 smoke free target. Similarly, countries including Belgium, Denmark and Finland, where strict regulations have limited the use of reduced-risk products, have seen little improvement in smoking rates.
The data highlights the unintended negative consequences of over-regulating vapes and other nicotine alternatives. In Estonia, it says, smoking rates have surged by 40 per cent following the introduction of tight vaping restrictions.
“This trend suggests that excessive regulation can drive smokers back to traditional cigarettes, undermining efforts to reduce smoking-related health risks,” the report says.
“According to the Eurobarometer survey, the use of reduced-risk products such as e-cigarettes, nicotine pouches and heated tobacco remains low across the EU.
“However, these products offer significant potential for reducing smoking rates, especially if supported by public health policies that promote their safe use. With only three per cent of EU adults vaping, the survey highlights the untapped potential of these alternatives to reduce smoking prevalence.”
Dr. Delon Human, lead author of the report, said the report is a wake-up call to the EU to recognise that restrictive policies on safer nicotine alternatives are costing lives.
He said: “The data clearly show that countries prioritising harm reduction are achieving the smoke free goals that remain a distant dream for other member states.
“Only by embracing safer alternatives can the EU hope to reverse the current trends, save lives and achieve its long-awaited smoke free goal.”
