- Around 42% of adults who smoked and used vapes frequently in 2019 had stopped smoking by 2022, according to a large U.S. longitudinal study.
- This compares with 20% of similar smokers quitting between 2014 and 2017, suggesting stronger transitions away from cigarettes in more recent years.
- Researchers estimate about 1.6 million adults who smoked in 2019 and used vapes frequently had quit smoking by 2022.
- Over the same period, roughly 1.6 million youth were frequent vape users by 2022, highlighting the population-level balance policymakers must consider.
A large U.S. study tracking tobacco use over several years has found that four in ten smokers who regularly used vapes had quit cigarettes within three years.
The research, published in Frontiers in Public Health, analysed data from the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health (PATH) Study, a nationally representative longitudinal survey following thousands of people over time.
Researchers examined how vaping and smoking behaviours changed across two periods: 2014-2017 and 2019-2022, capturing a time when the vaping market evolved rapidly and new products became widely available.
Frequent vape use linked with higher quitting rates
Among adults who smoked cigarettes and used vapes frequently in 2019, 42.4 per cent had stopped smoking by 2022.
In contrast, 20 per cent of smokers who used vapes frequently in 2014 had quit by 2017, suggesting the link between vaping and smoking cessation became stronger in the later period studied.
The researchers reported: “Among adults who smoked cigarettes and used ENDS frequently, 23 and 42 per cent discontinued smoking across two periods: 2014-2016-2017; 2019-2021-2022, respectively.”
ENDS is the term used in the study for electronic nicotine delivery systems, also known as vapes.
The analysis suggests that more consistent use of vapes may be associated with greater switching away from cigarettes, compared with occasional use.
Millions quitting cigarettes while vaping rises
At the population level, the numbers involved are substantial. The study estimates that about 3.8 million U.S. adults who smoked cigarettes in 2019 were also frequent vape users, and around 1.6 million of them had stopped smoking by 2022.
The authors write that “the number of adults who smoked cigarettes in 2019 who used ENDS frequently in 2019, and stopped smoking cigarettes in 2022, was 1.6 million.”
However, the study also found that youth vaping remained significant. Across the same period, around 1.6 million young people were frequent vape users by 2022, meaning policymakers must consider both adult smoking cessation and youth uptake when evaluating regulations.
Shifts in the vaping market
The researchers say several factors may explain the changing patterns since 2019, including the rise of newer nicotine formulations and broader social changes.
They note that the U.S. vaping market has evolved significantly in recent years, with new products capable of delivering nicotine more efficiently.
Other developments during the study period included the COVID-19 pandemic, new tobacco control policies and restrictions on flavoured vaping products.
According to the authors, these overlapping changes may have influenced both vaping behaviour and smoking trends.
Observational findings
The study tracked participants over several survey waves rather than testing a specific intervention.
Because of this, the authors stress that the results are descriptive rather than proof of cause and effect, noting that “our observational findings should be interpreted as descriptive and context-setting.”
Even so, the findings suggest that transitions from smoking to vaping – particularly among frequent vape users – have become more common in recent years.
The researchers conclude that “the population-level impact of ENDS in the US appears greater since the significant evolution in the ENDS market.”
