Almost 96 per cent of vapes bought in Australia may be coming from the illicit market, according to research that raises fresh questions over whether the country’s pharmacy-only sales model is working.
A survey of 4,000 recent nicotine consumers by criminologist James Martin estimated that 95.7 per cent of vapes purchased were illicit, leaving only a small fraction apparently being bought through legal channels.
The findings come as Australia continues to restrict legal vape sales to pharmacies, while cigarettes remain widely available from ordinary retailers.
Since October 2024, adults have been able to buy some therapeutic vapes containing up to 20mg/ml of nicotine from participating pharmacies without a prescription, following consultation with a pharmacist and subject to state and territory rules.
But the research suggests relatively few of Australia’s estimated 1.5 million people who vape are using that route.
Legal sales appear to be losing out
Australia has gradually tightened its vaping laws, with legal products restricted by where they can be sold, how they can be presented and the flavours and nicotine strengths available.
The policy is intended to restrict recreational and youth vaping while preserving access for adult smokers seeking a less harmful alternative to cigarettes.
But the scale of estimated illegal purchasing suggests the regulated market is struggling to compete with an established black market offering products outside those controls.
Martin’s research also found widespread illicit purchasing among smokers. Nearly half of people buying manufactured cigarettes and more than 60 per cent of those buying roll-your-own tobacco reported purchasing illicit products.
He estimated annual spending on illicit nicotine products at around A$7.7 billion.
The figures are based on survey estimates rather than official sales data, so should be treated with some caution. But separate academic analysis has also pointed to a large and growing illegal nicotine market in Australia.
Smoking continues to fall
The rise of the illicit market comes alongside a continuing decline in reported smoking.
Daily smoking among Australians aged 14 and over fell to 5.6 per cent in 2025, according to the National Drug Strategy Household Survey, down from 8.3 per cent in 2022-23 and 19.5 per cent in 2001.
Among adults aged 18 and over, the rate stood at 5.8 per cent.
That leaves policymakers with an unusual picture. Smoking has fallen substantially, but much of the remaining demand for vapes appears to be being met by illegal suppliers rather than the regulated market.
Illicit products sit beyond the normal systems designed to enforce product standards, age restrictions and taxation.
Pharmacy access under scrutiny
Australia moved away from a prescription-only approach to vaping in October 2024, allowing adults to obtain qualifying products directly from participating pharmacies.
But access remains much more restricted than it is for cigarettes. Not every pharmacy supplies vapes, while legal products face restrictions on flavours, nicotine strength and presentation.
The latest research raises the question of whether making a legal product technically available is enough if consumers overwhelmingly choose other sources.
For smokers trying to move away from cigarettes, the effectiveness of the pharmacy model may depend on whether legal products are accessible and appealing enough to compete with both smoking and illegal vapes.
That is particularly significant when cigarettes can still be bought through ordinary retail outlets, while adults seeking a legal vape face a narrower route through participating pharmacies.
Pressure grows for a rethink
Australia has linked its restrictive vaping policy with tough enforcement against illegal suppliers, as authorities attempt to close stores and disrupt criminal distribution networks.
But the scale of estimated illicit purchasing suggests enforcement alone faces a sizable challenge.
Researchers and harm reduction advocates have argued that policymakers should consider whether a wider legal market, potentially involving licensed specialist retailers alongside pharmacies, could draw adult consumers away from illegal sellers while maintaining controls on product standards and youth access.
The latest evidence doesn’t show that Australia’s approach has caused the illicit market on its own. High cigarette taxes, product restrictions, consumer preferences and organised criminal supply are all likely to play a role.
But with an estimated 95.7 per cent of vape purchases taking place outside the legal system, the figures suggest Australia’s tightly controlled pharmacy model has yet to capture much of the existing demand for vaping products.
