Labour’s crackdown on vaping could backfire and lead to more people smoking, the government’s own impact assessment warns.
An “unintended consequence” of banning disposable vapes and certain flavours “is that it could encourage more people to try smoking” it says.
The report, published before the Tobacco and Vapes Bill was reintroduced to parliament last week, highlights a study from the U.S that found an extra 15 cigarettes could be sold for ever 0.7ml vape pod not sold.
The new Bill, if passed, will stop anyone born after January 2009 from ever being able to legally buy cigarettes, and ban smoking in a range of outdoor areas such outside hospitals and children’s play areas.
It also includes tighter restrictions on the advertisement, packaging and sale of vapes and other nicotine alternatives, including banning sweet or fruity flavours which are proven to help smokers quit.
Under separate environmental legislation, disposable vapes will be banned from June 1, 2025.
An ‘unintended consequence’
However, it has now emerged that the Health Department’s own impact assessment - published under Rishi Sunak’s Conservative government in April, warned the measures could turn more people to far harmful smoking.
It said: “A possible unintended consequence of the vaping policies is that it could encourage more young people to try smoking.
“For example, a study from the US found that restricting flavours of vapes led to an additional 15 cigarettes sold for every 0.7mL vape pod not sold.”
It was hoped that an outdoor smoking ban would help “mitigate” some of this consequence, but government plans to extend this to pub gardens were abandoned following a fierce backlash from the hospitality industry.
The report also points to a Bristol University study that found banning vape flavours drove more people to smoking, as well as evidence from the U.S.
“The study found that as a result of the flavour ban more adults may go back to smoking tobacco cigarettes,” it says. “This is in line with recent evidence on the flavour bans that have been imposed in the US.”
The ban ‘denies smokers an alternative’
Reem Ibrahim from the Institute of Economic Affairs said: “The government’s own impact assessment indicates that this draconian vape crackdown will push more people back to smoking - and not in small numbers.
“Labour may be pursuing a smoke-free future, but by denying smokers an alternative, it is hard to follow their logic. Rather than rushing through this legislation, the government must re-consider these knock on consequences.”
Ed Argar MP, Shadow Health Secretary, said: "It's clear that in Labour's efforts to rush through the Tobacco and Vapes Bill there are serious questions arising from their impact assessment, on which the British People and Parliament need and deserve greater clarity from the Government about the detail of that impact.”
Former Conservative Party leader Sir Iain Duncan Smith said Labour “must have some pretty clear evidence that there is harm” before going ahead with a vapes ban.
‘Regulatory overkill’
Marcus Saxton, group chief executive of vape online retailer Totally Wicked and chairman of the Independent British Vape Trade Association (IBVTA), warned that “regulatory overkill” could harm vaping’s role in helping people quit smoking.
He said: “Excessive restrictions on the types of products that our members can provide may reduce the products’ appeal. Even worse, they may contribute to continued misperceptions about the harm of vaping relative to tobacco smoking.
“Specifically, the role of flavours in supporting adult smokers to a successful quit attempt is accepted and understood by most public health stakeholders, and we believe to have been fundamental to the success of vaping in reducing smoking rates.
“Therefore, any reference to potential powers to restrict flavours is very worrying, as it threatens the government’s own goal of the UK becoming smoke free by 2030.”
Meanwhile, Eve Peters, director of government affairs for vape manufacturer Elf Bar in the UK, pointed to estimates that around a third of vapers could return to smoking if the Bill is passed.
Vapes are a ‘key smoking cessation aid’
“Whilst we recognise and support that action must be taken to address youth vaping, it’s important to acknowledge that vaping products, including single-use, are a key smoking cessation aid, with millions of adult smokers having quit as a result,” she said.
“An impact assessment by Defra highlights that three in ten current vapers will either revert or relapse to smoking tobacco as a consequence of the ban, with officials cautioning that a rise in cigarette use could lead to significant health ‘disbenefits’ – posing serious health risks and endangering the Government’s smokefree targets.”
Elf Bar has urged the government to evaluate the evidence before any further restrictions on vaping are considered, particularly concerning flavours “which are vitally important to adult smokers”.
