The UK is set to become the first country in the world to see vaping rates surpass smoking, a new study shows.
In 2025, the number of adults vaping is estimated to rise above the 11 per cent recorded so far this year, while those who smoke is on course to fall to just over 10 per cent.
The research by the Global State of Tobacco Harm Reduction (GSTHR), a project from public health agency Knowledge Action Change (KAC), used data from the Office of National Statistics (ONS) to make the prediction.
UK’s positive attitude to vaping credited for trend
GSTHR has credited the UK’s positive attitude towards vaping and the role of the National Health Service (NHS) in encouraging people to switch from smoking to vaping as key influencers toward crossing the major milestone.
“When vaping overtakes smoking next year in the UK, it will not be simply the consequence of a consumer-led revolution, although this has been significant, it will also be the result of successive governments making pragmatic policy decisions based on the evidence in front of them,” said David MacKintosh, a director of KAC.
“Maintaining a clear focus on reducing the use of combustible cigarettes provides an opportunity to achieve the ambitious 2030 ‘smoke-free’ target.”
Smoking has fallen from nearly a quarter (23.7 per cent) in 2005, which GSTHR marks as the first year vaping became available in the UK. It took ten years for vaping to reach 5.4 per cent of the population, which saw a roughly equivalent drop in smoking (to 17.2 per cent).
And in 2019 as well as 2022, the figures again roughly correlated – with vaping in 2019 having increased to 7.1 per cent and smoking having fallen to 14.5 per cent, before moving to 8.7 per cent and 12.9 per cent, respectively, in 2022.
Most smokers who successfully quit used a vape
While the correlation does not in itself prove that cigarette smokers have switched to far less harmful vapes, recent research by Action on Smoking and Health (ASH) shows that more than half of ex-smokers (2.7 million people) who quit in the last five years used a vape to help them.
This is further backed by a 2022 evidence review on vaping in England commissioned by the Office for Health Improvement and Disparities (OHID). It showed that vapes were the most common aid used by people to quit smoking and that attempts to quit using a vape had a higher rate of success than those that did not (64.9 per cent to 58.6 per cent).
GSTHR said: “While smoking rates had been falling in the UK for many decades, the near 50 per cent reduction in the proportion of adults who smoke that has taken place since vapes were introduced to the country shows the positive potential of tobacco harm reduction.
“The UK experience adds further evidence that when appropriate, acceptable [nicotine products], such as vapes, are made accessible and affordable, those who smoke will make the choice to switch to them in increasing numbers.”
Concern over impact of vapes ban
However, charity Cancer Research is concerned the UK’s positive perception of vaping as a smoking cessation tool could be damaged by the proposed ban on disposables.
It warns that the ban - which aims to curb the appeal of vaping to young people - could reinforce the common misconception among the public that vaping is as or more harmful to health as smoking.
“There appears to be a real risk that as a result of a ban on disposable e-cigarettes all e-cigarettes could be viewed negatively - even for adults who might otherwise have chosen or considered using them for smoking cessation,” Cancer Research UK said.
A paper based on the Smoking Toolkit Study (STS) data showed that, in 2014, 10.8 per cent of respondents thought vapes were more harmful than cigarettes; by 2023, this had increased to 23.3 per cent.
“It is not known how implementing a ban on disposable vapes or increasing the age of sale of tobacco every year by one year will further affect this trend,” Cancer Research UK added.
