Australia’s illicit nicotine market has grown to account for an estimated 80 per cent of all consumption, as new government analysis shows vape use surging while consumption through legal channels falls sharply.
Experimental estimates from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) suggest the quantity of nicotine consumed across the country increased by almost 40 per cent between 2017 and 2025, far outstripping population growth of 14 per cent.
Vapes have been one of the fastest-growing parts of that shift. Estimated nicotine consumption through vapes climbed from 88kg in the final quarter of 2017 to 1,137kg by the end of 2025, an increase of almost 13-fold.
Over the same period, consumption of legal tobacco fell to less than a third of its 2017 level, while illicit cigarettes and other nicotine products also expanded rapidly.
The ABS said: “As household consumption of legal tobacco quantities continues to decline, ongoing substitution toward illicit tobacco products has more than offset these reductions, resulting in higher overall consumption of tobacco products.”
The findings provide fresh evidence of the scale of Australia’s black market after years of tightening controls on cigarettes and, more recently, restricting legal vape sales largely to pharmacies.
Illicit products now dominate consumption
The ABS estimates illicit sources accounted for just 12 per cent of total nicotine consumption in 2017. By 2025, that figure had reached 80 per cent.
In the final quarter of 2025, Australians consumed an estimated 8,030kg of nicotine. Legal tobacco accounted for 1,241kg, compared with 5,143kg from illicit cigarettes, 1,137kg from vapes and 510kg from other nicotine products.
That represents a major reversal from late 2017, when legal tobacco accounted for 4,764kg out of a total 5,449kg.
The shift has accelerated in recent years. Total nicotine consumption increased from 5,263kg in the December quarter of 2021 to more than 8,000kg four years later.
On a per-person basis, consumption was 22 per cent higher in 2025 than in 2017.
The ABS said the pattern was broadly similar across Australian states and territories, suggesting the move towards illicit products was happening nationwide rather than being driven by particular regions.
However, it said the data could not determine whether more Australians were consuming nicotine or existing consumers were simply using more.
Vaping rises almost 13-fold
The growth in vaping is particularly notable given Australia’s restrictions on legal sales.
Estimated vape consumption rose from 88kg of nicotine in the December quarter of 2017 to 168kg in 2020, 325kg in 2022 and 668kg by the end of 2024. It then climbed to 1,137kg in the final quarter of 2025.
Australia has progressively restricted access to vapes and, since October 2024, adults have been able to buy some therapeutic nicotine vapes without a prescription only through participating pharmacies, following a consultation with a pharmacist and subject to state and territory rules.
The ABS treats therapeutic nicotine products separately and says their contribution to total nicotine consumption is negligible.
Illicit cigarettes still account for a much larger share of consumption than vapes, rising from 532kg of nicotine in late 2017 to 5,143kg in late 2025.
But the figures show that the expansion of the illicit nicotine market is not solely being driven by cigarettes.
Legal tobacco prices have almost tripled
Price appears to be a significant part of the wider shift away from regulated products.
The ABS found prices for legal tobacco had almost tripled since the end of 2016, rising by an average 12 per cent a year, largely as a result of repeated increases in tobacco excise.
Prices for illicit tobacco, meanwhile, were estimated to have remained relatively stable.
The bureau said: “Greater accessibility and affordability of illicit tobacco products are likely to have enabled higher tobacco consumption.”
The effect can also be seen in household spending. Australians spent an estimated $6.4 billion (€3.93 billion) on tobacco and nicotine products in the
December quarter of 2020. By the December quarter of 2025, that had fallen to around $4.8 billion (€2.95 billion), close to 2016 levels, despite the quantity consumed having risen substantially.
Illicit products accounted for less than 40 per cent of expenditure in 2025 while making up 80 per cent of consumption, reflecting the much lower prices consumers pay outside the legal market.
Average quarterly spending was estimated at $172 (€105) per person at the end of 2025, compared with $178 (€109.30) in 2016.
ABS says estimates remain experimental
The bureau cautioned that its figures are experimental and may change as its methodology develops.
Its estimates are based partly on nicotine metabolites detected in wastewater samples from 60 treatment plants covering around 60 per cent of the Australian population.
Those readings are combined with supermarket sales, tax data and other sources to estimate how much nicotine came from legal tobacco, illicit cigarettes, vapes and other nicotine products.
The ABS said wastewater data can provide reliable estimates of overall nicotine consumption but cannot identify which products the nicotine came from, meaning statistical modelling is needed to divide consumption between categories.
Its methodology has been peer reviewed by the Illicit Tobacco and E-cigarette Commissioner, the Department of Home Affairs and the Australian Tax Office.
The findings are higher than previous government estimates. The Illicit Tobacco and E-cigarette Commissioner estimated illicit tobacco accounted for around 50 per cent to 60 per cent of the tobacco market in 2024-25.
The ABS said the difference partly reflected its broader definition, which includes cigarettes, vapes and other nicotine products, as well as more recent data. When adjusted to a comparable scope and period, the ABS estimate was 69 per cent.
Its latest figures show legal tobacco consumption falling rapidly while overall nicotine consumption rises, with vapes and illicit cigarettes accounting for a growing share of the market.
